AUTHORITARIAN WARNING SURVEY

November 6, 2017

Our October 2017 survey results demonstrate rising concerns about American democracy over the past month. From September to October, ratings worsened on every dimension except civil violence. Further, democracy experts still see American political behavior in 2017 as firmly outside the norm for consolidated democracies. On average, experts rate a 1...

October 4, 2017

Our September 2017 survey results demonstrate consistently strong concerns about American democracy over the past month, although slightly lessened compared to August. From August to September, ratings improved on every dimension except civil liberties. However, democracy experts still see American political behavior in 2017 as firmly outside the n...

September 4, 2017

Our August 2017 survey results demonstrate sharply increasing concern over the past month, amplified by the events in Charlottesville. From July to August, ratings worsened on every dimension, with especially large shifts on civil violence and civil liberties. Democracy experts see American political behavior in 2017 as firmly outside the norm for...

August 24, 2017

We're excited to announce that we're shifting to a daily-updated version of the Authoritarian Warning Survey. Our goal is to provide a live index of how democracy scholars are reacting to threats to American democracy and current events. Since July 25 and continuing through today, we survey random sub-samples of our experts every weekday and update...

July 31, 2017

Our July 2017 survey (the third in a monthly series) confirms a great deal of pessimism about American democracy and increasing concern over the past two months. From June to July, ratings worsened on nearly every dimension, with especially large shifts on elections and political rhetoric. Democracy experts see American political behavior in 2017 a...

July 18, 2017

July 20 marks six months into the Donald J. Trump administration. Now seems like a good time to step back from the daily headlines and take stock of the situation. To what extent is the United States experiencing democratic erosion?

Let me give credit where credit is due. I am a political scientist but democratic erosion is not my area of expertise....

June 27, 2017

Our June 2017 survey (the second in a monthly series) confirms a great deal of pessimism about American democracy. Democracy experts see American political behavior in 2017 as firmly outside the norm for consolidated democracies, although they remain divided on whether this threatens democratic stability. On average, experts rate a 10% chance of de...

June 13, 2017

Former FBI Director James Comey delivered highly anticipated testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on June 8, detailing the conditions surrounding President Trump’s decision to fire him nearly a month earlier. Among the highlights, Comey stated that Trump asked to privately meet with him in the Oval Office to discuss the investigation...

June 1, 2017

When we ran our inaugural survey of democracy experts in mid-May, perhaps the most shocking result was that they predicted on average an 11% chance of democratic breakdown in the U.S. within four years. Even if this is an over-estimate by a factor of 10, it still implies a significant chance of American democratic decline. Is this a real threat?

May 24, 2017

The results of our May 2017 survey (covering American political leaders from January-May 2017) indicate a great deal of pessimism about American democracy. In brief, we polled 68 democracy experts on threats to American democracy, the significance of recent events, and the likelihood of democratic breakdown in the U.S. See here for a longer descrip...

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