AUTHORITARIAN WARNING SURVEY

October 4, 2018

Our expert survey results in August and September 2018 demonstrate increased threat levels compared to July, with ratings worsening on all six dimensions of democratic performance. This represents a reversal from the improving condition from June to July 2018. Experts rate a 16.5% chance of democratic breakdown in the U.S. within the next four year...

August 9, 2018

Our expert survey results in July 2018 demonstrate slightly decreased threat levels compared to May-June, with ratings improving on five of six dimensions of democratic performance (all except elections). This represents a small correction from the worsening trend starting in April 2018. Experts rate a 13% chance of democratic breakdown in the U.S....

July 6, 2018

Our expert survey results in May-June 2018 demonstrate significantly increased threat levels compared to April, with ratings worsening on all six dimensions of democratic performance. This represents a correction from the downward trend in April 2018, and a near-return to the highs of March. Experts rate a 15.3% chance of democratic breakdown in th...

May 7, 2018

Our expert survey results in April 2018 demonstrate decreased threat levels compared to March, but an increase in perceived risk of democratic breakdown. This represents a correction from the trend from February to April 2018, when ratings worsened on all six dimensions of democratic performance. Experts rate a 11.4% chance of democratic breakdown...

April 3, 2018

Our expert survey results in March 2018 demonstrate increased threat levels and perceived risk of democratic breakdown. From February to March 2018, ratings worsened on all six dimensions of democratic performance, further reversing the improvement from December to January. Experts rate a 9.1% chance of democratic breakdown in the U.S. within the n...

March 6, 2018

Our expert survey results in February 2018 demonstrate increased threat levels and perceived risk of democratic breakdown. From January to February 2018, ratings worsened on five of six dimensions of democratic performance, reversing the improvement from December to January. Further, experts rate a 16.7% chance of democratic breakdown in the U.S. w...

February 7, 2018

Our survey results between December 2017 and January 2018 demonstrate mixed results, with some threat ratings improving and others worsening. From November to January, ratings improved on all six dimensions of democratic performance, reversing the deterioration from October to November. However, democracy experts still see American political behavi...

December 5, 2017

Our November 2017 survey results demonstrate sharply rising concerns about American democracy over the past month, especially regarding treatment of media and executive constraints. From October to November, ratings worsened on every dimension except civil liberties, continuing the declining trend from September. Further, democracy experts still se...

November 6, 2017

Our October 2017 survey results demonstrate rising concerns about American democracy over the past month. From September to October, ratings worsened on every dimension except civil violence. Further, democracy experts still see American political behavior in 2017 as firmly outside the norm for consolidated democracies. On average, experts rate a 1...

October 4, 2017

Our September 2017 survey results demonstrate consistently strong concerns about American democracy over the past month, although slightly lessened compared to August. From August to September, ratings improved on every dimension except civil liberties. However, democracy experts still see American political behavior in 2017 as firmly outside the n...

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